This Thursday, May 14th, the DraftKings Online Sportsbook in PA is running a special promotion in which you can make a risk-free bet of $5.14. The promotion is for both new users and existing users. In addition to the May 14th promo, DraftKings is offering up to $1000 in bonus money, which includes $500 in a risk-free bet and a 20% up to $500 first deposit bonus.
There are plenty of good bets in the futures department and for that, we’re focusing on a few NFL futures wagers.
Henry Ruggs III under 700 yards receiving (-140)
One such wager is that of Henry Ruggs to hit the 700-yard mark in receiving yards in 2020. Henry Ruggs is an absolute burner out of Alabama (4.27 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine). He was the first receiver taken in the 2019 draft. This came as a big shock to many, but for those of us who have followed the Raiders through the years, it’s absolutely not a surprise at all.
The Raiders love speed at the receiver position and have coveted it ever since they had Bob Hayes blazing down the sidelines forty-plus years ago. Ruggs isn’t just a pure speed guy. I’d like to say he’s more than just a speed guy, but he profiles very similarly to Kansas City’s Mecole Hardman. Though Ruggs probably isn’t much of a threat to see a high volume of targets, his speed makes him a little dangerous in this wager.
However, there are some factors keeping me at ease with this prop and the most significant is that of his quarterback, Derek Carr. Carr ranks among the worst among qualified quarterbacks at depth of target.
In addition to Derek Carr’s lack of interest in throwing the deep ball, the Raiders are stricken with adulation for the run game. Josh Jacobs had a massive break-out season last year as a rookie and the success he experienced will likely carry over into this season as well. Target share is another issue. Last season, the most heavily targeted players on the roster were Hunter Renfrow, a slot receiver, and Darren Waller, the tight end.
Renfrow fell short of 700 yards on the season, but gained a considerable amount of work as the season progressed. Waller was a heavy target early in the season but cooled off towards the end of the season. With Ruggs, he’s going to be a guy who will likely be the first or second read on most routes, as opposed to check-down options like Renfrow and Waller. It’s going to be a big test for Carr to see if he’s a viable long-term option in the offense. If Carr fails to utilize Ruggs, as I expect, he’s going to be deemed unfit to run the Raiders offense going forward.
I feel good about Ruggs not hitting the 700-yard mark on the season, especially with impending camp restrictions prior to the season. With the pandemic still in flux, rookie receivers will get even less time to acclimate to their new offenses and Ruggs will be no exception for the 2020 season.